Law mandating ethanol use 2016

Compared to the November 2013 preliminary rulemaking, the proposed standards for 2014 are larger for all categories, but below statutory levels for all but biomass-based diesel.As noted earlier, the EPA retained the waiver argument of insufficient supplies for renewable fuels, but increased the 2014 ethanol standard to 13.25 billion gallons, or 249 million gallons above the 13.01 billion gallons standard from the November 2013 preliminary rulemaking.Total ethanol use, reported in row (3), is also projected by the EIA and the levels are 13.43, 13.36, and 13.46 billion gallons in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively.

The approach we propose taking for 20 is forward-looking and consistent with the purpose of the statute to significantly increase the amount of renewable fuel used as transportation fuel over time, particularly renewable fuels with the lowest lifecycle GHG emissions, in the transportation fuel supply." (p.7) It is particularly striking that the EPA claims the proposed ethanol mandates are high enough to require levels of ethanol use beyond the E10 blend wall or the use of significantly more non-ethanol biofuels. The purpose of today's article is to examine whether this claim by the EPA is supported by the data.

These expectations were reflected in RINs market prices last week.

The proposal largely confirmed expectations for biomass-based diesel ("biodiesel") but did not appear to do so for ethanol.

The EPA uses EIA projections of total gasoline use in the U. Note that gasoline use is projected to increase 1.4 percent in 2015 and then drop by 0.6 percent in 2016.

The E10 blend wall (assuming no E0) is simply 10 percent of the gasoline totals.